Main.ConjunctionFallacy History

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August 15, 2006, at 04:04 PM by 219.77.134.194 -
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!Conjunction Fallacy

Examine the following personality sketch:

@@@Bill is 34 years old. He is intelligent, but unimaginative, compulsive and generally lifeless. In school, he was strong in mathematics but weak in social studies and humanities.@@@

Which statement is more probable:

# Bill is an accountant that plays jazz for a hobby, or
# Bill plays jazz for a hobby?

[- From http://www.dcs.qmul.ac.uk/~norman/BBNs/Conjunction_Fallacy.htm 2006.08.15 -]

[[Category.Mind]]