Suppose you roll a single die four times; what is the
probability of rolling at least one 6? The gambler reasoned
that since the chance of a 6 in each roll is 1/6, the chance
of a 6 in 4 rolls is 4
1/6 = 2/3. Now suppose you roll
a pair of dice 24 times; what is the probability of rolling at
least one double 6? The gambler reasoned that since the chance
of a double 6 in one roll is 1/36, the chance of a double 6 in
24 rolls is 24
1/36 = 2/3. In other words, the gambler
expected to win each bet 2/3 of the time. His problem was
that he seemed to lose more often with the second bet than the
first. He was at a loss to explain this, so he asked his
friend Pascal for an answer.
Only the mind cannot be sent into exile.

Ovid