OpenCourseWare on critical thinking, logic, and creativity

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1. The common cause is likely to be wealth. Increased personal wealth tends to cause increased spending on consumer goods, and hence tends to increase the television ownership rate. Similarly, increased wealth tends to produce increased spending on health, and hence a higher life expectancy. The causal story might in fact be more complicated than this, but still it is no mystery how television ownership and life expectancy can be correlated, even if there is no direct causal link between owning a TV and living a long life.
2. Yes, this is an example of the post hoc fallacy. The fact that belief in superstition is correlated with neurosis, depression and low IQ does not show that belief in superstition causes these things. In fact, the causal explanation could be entirely the other way round; perhaps neurosis, depression and low IQ cause people to take superstitions such as astrology more seriously. Alternatively, there may be a common cause explanation; perhaps the social or psychological factors which tend to produce belief in superstition also tend to produce neurosis, depression and low IQ.

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