Main.ProblemInduction History
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Note: Hume does not argue that we should give up induction. He thinks we are psychologically incapable of giving up induction.
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Note: Hume does not argue that we should give up induction. He thinks we are psychologically incapable of giving up induction.
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* 95% of the swans in Australia are black. There is a swan in Sydney Harbour in Australia. Therefore it is most likely that the swam is black.
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* 95% of the swans in Australia are black. There is a swan in Sydney Harbour in Australia. Therefore it is most likely that the swan is black.
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# Therefore, food from the HKU canteen is not going to kill me today.
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# Therefore, food from the HKU canteen is not going to kill me tomorrow.
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* Is there a hidden assumption? "If P has always been true, then P will also be true today."
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* Is there a hidden assumption? "If P has always been true, then P will also be true tomorrow."
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* http://philosophy.hku.hk/think/arg/induction.php
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* [Required] http://philosophy.hku.hk/think/arg/induction.php
* [Required] http://www.princeton.edu/~grosen/puc/phi203/induction.html
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* http://www.princeton.edu/~grosen/puc/phi203/induction.html
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* Alexander George (2007). [[http://quod.lib.umich.edu/p/phimp/images/3521354.0007.002.pdf|A Proof of Induction?]] Philosophers' Imprint. Vol 7, No. 2, pp. 1-5.
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# Food from the HKU canteen is not going to kill me today.
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# Therefore, food from the HKU canteen is not going to kill me today.
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Notes
* Hume does not argue that we should give up induction. He thinks we are psychologically incapable of giving up induction.
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Note: Hume does not argue that we should give up induction. He thinks we are psychologically incapable of giving up induction.
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Induction vs. deduction
!!Examples of deduction
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!!Induction vs. deduction
!!!Examples of deduction
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!!Examples of inductive reasoning
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!!!Examples of inductive reasoning
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!!How is induction justified?
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!!Some examples of inductive reasoning
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!!Examples of inductive reasoning
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!!Examples of deduction
* All swans are white. Liddy is a swan. So Liddy is white.
* If it rains, the race will be canceled. It is raining. So the race will be canceled.
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* http://www.princeton.edu/~grosen/puc/phi203/induction.html
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Focus on this argument:
# Food from the HKU canteen has never managed to kill me.
# Food from the HKU canteen is not going to kill me today.
Are you justified in accepting the conclusion? Note that:
* The argument is not deductively valid. It is possible for the premise to be true while the conclusion is false.
* Is there a hidden assumption? "If P has always been true, then P will also be true today."
** But how do we justify this assumption? Experience? Logic?
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Hume ''Treatise'', Book I, Part IV, Section VII, p. 269 in the Selby-Bigge edition
@@@Most fortunately it happens that, since reason is incapable of dispelling these clouds, nature herself suffices to that purpose, and cures me of this philosophical melancholy and delirium, either by relaxing this bent of mind, or by some avocation and lively impression of my senses which obliterate all these chimeras. I dine, I play a game of back-gammon, I converse and I am merry with my friends; and when after three or four hours' amusement, I would return to these speculations, they appear so cold and strain'd, and ridiculous, that I cannot find in my heart to enter into them any further.@@@
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Kant "Introduction" ''Prolegomena to Any Future Metaphysics''
@@@I openly confess, the suggestion of David Hume was the very thing, which many years ago first interrupted my '''dogmatic slumber''', and gave my investigations in the field of speculative philosophy quite a new direction@@@
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!!Hume's (1711-1776) criticism of the justification of induction
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!!Hume's criticism of the justification of induction
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[-David Hume (1711-1776)-]
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!!Hume's criticism of the justification of induction
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!!Hume's (1711-1776) criticism of the justification of induction
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@@@When on innumerable occasions we observe certain experiences succeeding others, we naturally feel under similar circumstances in the future like events or causes will be followed by like effects... only custom or habit may validly be said to serve as the foundation for this causal idea.@@@
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@@@When on innumerable occasions we observe certain experiences succeeding others, we naturally feel under similar circumstances in the future like events or causes will be followed by like effects... only custom or habit may validly be said to serve as the foundation for this causal idea.@@@
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@@@When on innumerable occasions we observe certain experiences succeeding others, we naturally feel under similar circumstances in the future like events or causes will be followed by like effects... only custom or habit may validly be said to serve as the foundation for this causal idea.@@@
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* http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/induction-problem/
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!!Some examples of inductive reasoning
* All the swans that have been observed were white. Therefore, the next swan we come across will also be white.
* 95% of the swans in Australia are black. There is a swan in Sydney Harbour in Australia. Therefore it is most likely that the swam is black.
* Her current boyfriend is just like her old one. She was unhappy the last time and she won't be this time either.
!!Hume's criticism of the justification of induction
# Induction cannot be justified ''a priori'' (based on pure reasoning and logic).
# Induction cannot be justified ''a posteriori'' (based on experience).
# Justification for induction is either ''a priori'' or ''a posteriori''.
# Therefore, induction cannot be justified.
Notes
* Hume does not argue that we should give up induction. He thinks we are psychologically incapable of giving up induction.
!!
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!!Readings
* http://philosophy.hku.hk/think/arg/induction.php
Induction vs. deduction
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!The problem of induction
[[Category.Science]]